Group members







L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, G.K. Heilig (2011). "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries." Demography, Vol. 48, 815-839.

H. Sevcikova, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 43(1), 1-29.


L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S. J. Clark, F. Pelletier, and T. Buettner (2010). "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries." CSSS Working Paper no. 97.

L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, and A. Reddy (2010). "Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model." CSSS Working Paper no. 103.

T. Brown, L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover and P. Gerland (2010). "Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS estimation and projection package 2009". Sexually Transmitted Infections.

J. L. Chunn, A. E. Raftery, P. Gerland (2010): "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries." CSSS Working Paper no. 105.

L.F. Johnson, L. Alkema, R.E. Dorrington (2010). "A Bayesian approach to uncertainty analysis of sexually transmitted infection models". Sexually Transmitted Infections, Vol 86, 169-174.

D.J. Sharrow, S.J. Clark, M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2010). "The Age-Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa." CSSS Working Paper no. 102.


M.A. Collinson, S.J. Clark, A.A.M. Gerritsen, P. Byass, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2009). "The Dynamics of Poverty and Migration in a Rural South African Community, 2001-2005." CSSS Working Paper no. 92.

A.E. Raftery and L. Bao (2009). "Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling." Technical report no. 560, Department of Statistics.


L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, T. Brown (2008). "Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates". Sexually Transmitted Infections, Vol 84 (Suppl I), i11 - i16.

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, and F. Pelletier (2008). "Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty." CSSS Working Paper no. 89.

T. Brown, J.A. Salomon, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, and E.Gouws (2008). "Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007." Sexually Transmitted Infections , Vol 84 (Suppl I), i5 - i11.

S.J. Clark, J. Eaton, M.M. Elmquist, N.R. Ottenweil ler and J.K. Snavely (2008). Demographic consequences of HIV epidemics and effects of different male circumcision intervention designs: Suggestive findings from microsimulation. CSSS Working Paper no. 85.

J. Thomas and S.J. Clark (2008). "More on the Coho rt-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimation Methods." CSSS Working Paper 88.

S.M Tollman, K. Kahn, B. Sartorius, M.A. Collinson, S.J. Clark, M.L. Garenne (2008). "Implications of mortality transition for primary health care in rural South Africa: a population-based surveillance study". Lancet Vol. 372, No. 9642, 893-901.


L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery and S.J. Clark (2007). "Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding." Annals of Applied Statistics Volume 1, Number 1, 229-248.

H. Sevcikova, A.E. Raftery a nd P.A. Waddell (2007). Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using Bayesian melding. Transportation Research, Vol. 41B, Issue 6, 652-669.