We are developing a statistical framework for probabilistic projection and estimation of population, fertility, mortality and migration for all countries, in collaboration with the United Nations Population Division. This extends the deterministic methods that have been standard since the 1940s, to account for uncertainty and measurement error in data.
In 2015, for the first time, the UN’s official population projections were probabilistic, based in part on our methods. Some of the results were described by Gerland, Raftery et al (2014), which is ranked in the top 0.1% of all articles ever published in Science magazine by impact. You can explore the data using wppExplorer.
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