Probabilistic Population Projections
We are giving a
course on Bayesian Demography in Como, Italy, June 24-28, 2019.
Paper on estimating emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries by Azose and Raftery published in PNAS. Media mentions include The Guardian, NPR, The Independent, KOMO Radio, Xinhua Net, Forbes, UPI, EurekAlert!, Quartz. ( December 2018)
We are giving the
ALAP/UNFPA Short Course on Bayesian Population Projections in Puebla, Mexico, October 21-23, 2018.
Probabilistic trajectories of international net migration, as well as trajectories of total population that take probabilistic migration into account, are available for
download. ( March 2018)
Probabilistic projection trajectories for most countries are available for
download. They include trajectories of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and population. ( December 2017)
New R package,
MortCast, has been released on CRAN. It implements methodology described in Ševčíková et al. (2016) for estimating and projecting age-specific mortality rates. It includes the coherent Kannisto method as well as the coherent and rotated Lee-Carter method. ( December 2017)
On 10/28-29/2017 we are organizing a
training course on Bayesian Population Projections: Theory and Practice, at the IUSSP in Cape Town, South Africa.
WPP 2017 is out! After the release of the United Nations World Population Prospects 2017 on June 21st 2017, the R package wpp2017 has been made available on CRAN. The wppExplorer online has been updated to show the new data. ( June 2017)
Adrian Raftery receives Ireland’s St. Patrick’s Day Medal, presented by the prime minister of Ireland Enda Kenny on March 15, 2017.
Paper on respondent-driven sampling variance estimation published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. News release. ( December 2016)
Paper on the bayesPop R package published in the Journal of Statistical Software. ( December 2016)
Paper on population projections with migration uncertainty published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. ( May 2016) Jon Azose won a Poster Award for his poster on
Including Migration Uncertainty in Probabilistic Population Projections at the Population Association of America’s 2016 Annual Meeting. ( April 2016)
A two-day short course on the methodology and software held at the Population Association of America’s 2016 Annual Meeting. ( April 2016) Our work was featured in a
documentary about demography on German national TV (3sat/ZDF). The segment about our work starts at 26:30. ( May 2015) New versions of R packages
bayesTFR, bayesLife and bayesPop are available on CRAN. They work now with wpp2015.
wppExplorer has been updated to work with WPP 2015. Browse data online. No R necessary! Following the release of
WPP 2015, the R package wpp2015 is now available on CRAN.
WPP 2015 has been released on July 29th 2015. The work attracted some media coverage. For example, here are reports on it in
The Guardian, and the Scientific American. Here and here are some comments on it in the New York Times. Here is Science magazine’s own report on the research article. The article was ranked in the top 0.1% of over 30,000 articles ever published in Science by the journal’s article level metrics.