News

• We are teaching the IUSSP 2021 Short Course on Subnational Probabilistic Population Projections. (December 3-4, 2021)
• The Conversation published a post by Michael Pearce and Adrian Raftery on increasing maximum human life span. (August 2021)
• The Conversation published a post by Adrian Raftery on decreasing birth rate in the US. (June 2021)
• See blog post from Adrian Raftery “Limiting warming to 2 C requires emissions reductions 80% above Paris Agreement targets” and related Washington Post article. (February 2021)
• Peiran Liu incorporated his new method on assessing uncertainty about past fertility data into bayesTFR. (March 2021)
• R packages bayesTFR, bayesLife and bayesPop now support probabilistic projections of subnational fertility, life expectancy and population, as well as estimating and projecting in one year time intervals. (2020).
• wppExplorer online has been enhanced and moved. Make sure to update your bookmark! New feature: An access to previous WPP revisions (from the left panel), namely 2012, 2015 and 2017. (December 2019)
• The R package wpp2019 is now on CRAN. (July 2019)
• WPP 2019 is out! The United Nations World Population Prospects 2019 was released on June 17st 2019. The R package wpp2019 has been made available on GitHub. The wppExplorer online has been updated to show the new data. (June 2019)
• We are giving a course on Bayesian Demography in Como, Italy, June 24-28, 2019.
• Paper on estimating emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries by Azose and Raftery published in PNAS. Media mentions include The Guardian, NPR, The Independent, KOMO Radio, Xinhua Net, Forbes, UPI, EurekAlert!, Quartz. (December 2018)
• We are giving the ALAP/UNFPA Short Course on Bayesian Population Projections in Puebla, Mexico, October 21-23, 2018.
• Probabilistic trajectories of international net migration, as well as trajectories of total population that take probabilistic migration into account, are available for download. (March 2018)
• Probabilistic projection trajectories for most countries are available for download. They include trajectories of total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and population. (December 2017)
• New R package, MortCast, has been released on CRAN. It implements methodology described in Ševčíková et al. (2016) for estimating and projecting age-specific mortality rates. It includes the coherent Kannisto method as well as the coherent and rotated Lee-Carter method. (December 2017)
• On 10/28-29/2017 we are organizing a training course on Bayesian Population Projections: Theory and Practice, at the IUSSP in Cape Town, South Africa.
• WPP 2017 is out! After the release of the United Nations World Population Prospects 2017 on June 21st 2017, the R package wpp2017 has been made available on CRAN. The wppExplorer online has been updated to show the new data. (June 2017)
• Adrian Raftery receives Ireland’s St. Patrick’s Day Medal, presented by the prime minister of Ireland Enda Kenny on March 15, 2017.
• Paper on respondent-driven sampling variance estimation published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. News release. (December 2016)
• Paper on the bayesPop R package published in the Journal of Statistical Software. (December 2016)
• Paper on population projections with migration uncertainty published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (May 2016)
• Jon Azose won a Poster Award for his poster on Including Migration Uncertainty in Probabilistic Population Projections at the Population Association of America’s 2016 Annual Meeting. (April 2016)
• A two-day short course on the methodology and software held at the Population Association of America’s 2016 Annual Meeting. (April 2016)
• Our work was featured in a documentary about demography on German national TV (3sat/ZDF). The segment about our work starts at 26:30. (May 2015)
• New versions of R packages bayesTFR, bayesLife and bayesPop are available on CRAN. They work now with wpp2015.
• wppExplorer has been updated to work with WPP 2015. Browse data online. No R necessary!
• Following the release of WPP 2015, the R package wpp2015 is now available on CRAN.
• WPP 2015 has been released on July 29th 2015.
• The work attracted some media coverage. For example, here are reports on it in The Guardian, and the Scientific American. Here and here are some comments on it in the New York Times. Here is Science magazine’s own report on the research article. The article was ranked in the top 0.1% of over 30,000 articles ever published in Science by the journal’s article level metrics.