Papers

2016   2015   2014   2013   2012   2011   2010   2009   2008   2007

2016

Baraff, A., McCormick, T.A. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating uncertainty in respondent-driven sampling using a tree bootstrap method. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, no. 51, 14668–14673.

Ševčíková, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 75(5).

Azose, J.J., Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E. (2016): Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113:6460–6465.

Raftery, A.E. (2016). Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining, doi:10.1002/sam.11302. Earlier version.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating Large Correlation Matrices for International Migration. Technical Report no. 644, Department of Statistics, and Working Paper no. 154, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.
Also arXiv:1605.08759.

Ševčíková, H., Li, N., Kantorová, V., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. (2016): Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections. In: Dynamic Demographic Analysis, ed. Schoen R. (Springer), pp. 285-310. Earlier version.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016). Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and developed countries. Population Studies 70:21-37.
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2015

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015). Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9:1247-1277. Earlier version.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2015). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, 178:977-1007. Earlier version.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015). Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates. Demography 52:1627-1650.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015). The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J., Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O’Hagan, A., Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Smith, P.W.F. (2015). Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses. Journal of Official Statistics 31:537-544.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. Statistics and Its Interface, 8:125-136. Earlier version.
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2014

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. Statistical Science, 29:58-68.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. Demographic Research 30:1011-1034.

Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J.L., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014). World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century.Science 346:234-237.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy. Demographic Research, 30:795-822.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics. PLoS One 9(5): e96447, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096447.
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2013

Clark, S.J., Kahn, K., Houle, B., Arteche, A., Collinson, M.A., Tollman, S.M. and Stein, A. (2013). Young Children’s Probability of Dying Before and After Their Mothers’ Death: A Rural Southern African Population-Based Surveillance Study. PLoS Medicine, 10(3):e1001409.

Houle, B., Stein, A., Kahn, K., Madhavan, S., Collinson, M.A., Tollman, S.M. and Clark, S.J. (2013). Household Context and Child Mortality in Rural South Africa: The Effects of Birth Spacing, Shared Mortality, Household Composition, and Socio-Economic Status. International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dyt149.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková , H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. Demography, 50:777-801.

Sharrow, D., Clark, S.J., Collinson, M.A., Kahn, K. and Tollman, S.M. (2013). The Age-Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa. Demographic Research, 29:1039-1096.

Wheldon, M., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2013). Estimating Demographic Parameters with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 108:96-110.

Wheldon, M. C., Raftery, A. E., Clark, S. J., and Gerland, P. (2013). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. Working Paper 138. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.
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2012

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. Demographic Research 26:331-362.

Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012). Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88:i3-i10.

Clark, S.J., Thomas, J. and Bao, L.. (2012). Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model. Demographic Research, 27(26):743-74.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2012). Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes. The American Statistician, 66:34-41.

Raftery, A.E., Li. N., Ševčíková , H., Gerland, P. and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109:13915-13921.

Wheldon, M. C., Raftery, A. E., Clark, S. J., and Gerland, P. (2012). Bayesian Reconstruction of Past Populations and Vital Rates by Age for Developing and Developed Countries. Working Paper 117. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.
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2011

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, G.K. Heilig (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography, Vol. 48, 815-839.

H. Ševčíková, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 43(1), 1-29.
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2010

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S. J. Clark, F. Pelletier, and T. Buettner (2010). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. CSSS Working Paper no. 97.

L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, and A. Reddy (2010). Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. CSSS Working Paper no. 103.

T. Brown, L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover and P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS estimation and projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections, Vol. 86 (Suppl 2), ii3-10, doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.044784.

J. L. Chunn, A. E. Raftery, P. Gerland (2010). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. CSSS Working Paper no. 105.

L.F. Johnson, L. Alkema, R.E. Dorrington (2010). A Bayesian approach to uncertainty analysis of sexually transmitted infection models. Sexually Transmitted Infections, Vol 86, 169-174.

D.J. Sharrow, S.J. Clark, M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2010). The Age-Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa. CSSS Working Paper no. 102.
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2009

M.A. Collinson, S.J. Clark, A.A.M. Gerritsen, P. Byass, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2009). The Dynamics of Poverty and Migration in a Rural South African Community, 2001-2005. CSSS Working Paper no. 92.

A.E. Raftery and L. Bao (2009). Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Technical report no. 560, Department of Statistics.
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2008

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, T. Brown (2008). Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. Sexually Transmitted Infections, Vol 84 (Suppl I), i11 – i16.

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, and F. Pelletier (2008). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. CSSS Working Paper no. 89.

T. Brown, J.A. Salomon, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, and E.Gouws (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections , Vol 84 (Suppl I), i5 – i11.

S.J. Clark, J. Eaton, M.M. Elmquist, N.R. Ottenweiller and J.K. Snavely (2008). Demographic consequences of HIV epidemics and effects of different male circumcision intervention designs: Suggestive findings from microsimulation. CSSS Working Paper no. 85.

J. Thomas and S.J. Clark (2008). More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimation Methods. CSSS Working Paper 88.

S.M Tollman, K. Kahn, B. Sartorius, M.A. Collinson, S.J. Clark, M.L. Garenne (2008). Implications of mortality transition for primary health care in rural South Africa: a population-based surveillance study. Lancet Vol. 372, No. 9642, 893-901.
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2007

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery and S.J. Clark (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Annals of Applied Statistics Volume 1, Number 1, 229-248.

H. Sevcikova, A.E. Raftery and P.A. Waddell (2007). Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using Bayesian melding. Transportation Research, Vol. 41B, Issue 6, 652-669.
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