# Papers

2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

## 2023

Yu, C., Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E., and Curran, S.R. (2023) Probabilistic County-Level Population Projections. *Demography*, Vol. 60(3): 915-937.

Liu, P.R., Ševčíková, H., and Raftery, A.E. (2023) Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty. *Journal of Statistical Software*, Vol. 106(8).

Raftery, A.E. and Ševčíková, H. (2023). Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term. *International Journal of Forecasting*, Vol. 39(1):73-97.

## 2022

Rennert, K., Errickson, F., Prest, B.C., Rennels, L., Newell, R.G., Pizer, W.A., Kingdon, C., Wingenroth, J., Cooke, R., Parthum, B., Smith, D., Cromar, K., Diaz, D., Moore, F.C., Müller, U.K., Plevin, R.J., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková, H., Sheets, H., Stock, J.H., Tan, T., Watson, M., Wong, T.E., and Anthoff, D. (2022). Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2. *Nature*, Vol. 610, 687–692.

Welch, N.G. and Raftery, A.E. (2022). Modeling and Forecasting Bilateral Migration Flows for All Countries. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, Vol. 119(35), 1-8.

## 2021

Irons, N.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, Vol. 118, no. 31.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Country-based emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 C target. *Communications Earth and Environment* 2:Article 29.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Accounting for Smoking in Forecasting Mortality and Life Expectancy. *Annals of Applied Statistics* 15:437-459.

Pearce, M. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections. *Demographic Research*, Vol. 44(52): 1271-1294. Related post in The Conversation.

Rennert, Kevin, Brian C. Prest, William A. Pizer, Richard G. Newell, David Anthoff, Cora Kingdon, Lisa Rennels, Roger Cooke, Adrian E. Raftery, Hana Ševčíková, and Frank Errickson (2021). The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates. *Brookings Papers on Economic Activity*, Fall. 223-275.

Ševčíková, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2021). Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Life Expectancy. *Journal of Official Statistics*, Vol. 37, no. 3, 591-610.

## 2020

Liu, D.H. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline? *Population and Development Review*, 46(3), 409-441. Related post in N-IUSSP.

Liu, P. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Accounting for Uncertainty About Past Values In Probabilistic Projections
of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, Vol 14, no. 2, 685-705.

Li, Y. and Raftery, A.E. (2020). Estimating and forecasting the smoking-attributable mortality fraction for both sexes jointly in 69 countries. *Annals of Applied Statistics*, Vol 14, no. 1, 381-408. Earlier version.

## 2019

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2019): Estimation of emigration, return migration, and transit migration between all pairs of countries. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, Vol. 116, no. 1, 116-122.

## 2018

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2018). Estimating large correlation matrices in international migration.
*Annals of Applied Statistics*, 12:940-970.

Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E. and Gerland, P. (2018). Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates. *Demographic Research*, Vol. 38(60): 1843-1884.

Sharrow, D.J., Godwin, J., He, Y.J, Clark, S.J., Raftery, A.E. (2018): Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. *Population Studies*, 72(1), 1–15.

## 2017

Godwin, J., Raftery, A.E. (2017): Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic. *Demographic Research*, 37: 1549–1610

Raftery, A.E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D.M.W., Startz R. and Liu, P. (2017). Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. *Nature Climate Change*, Vol. 7, 637–641.

## 2016

Baraff, A., McCormick, T.A. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating uncertainty in respondent-driven sampling using a tree bootstrap method. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*, Vol. 113, no. 51, 14668–14673.

Ševčíková, H. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections. *Journal of Statistical Software*, Vol. 75(5).

Azose, J.J., Ševčíková, H., Raftery, A.E. (2016): Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 113:6460–6465.

Raftery, A.E. (2016). Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts. *Statistical Analysis and Data Mining*, doi:10.1002/sam.11302. Earlier version.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2016). Estimating Large Correlation Matrices for International Migration. Technical Report no. 644, Department of Statistics, and Working Paper no. 154, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington. Also arXiv:1605.08759.

Ševčíková, H., Li, N., Kantorová, V., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. (2016): Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections. In: Dynamic Demographic Analysis, ed. Schoen R. (Springer), pp. 285-310. Earlier version.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2016). Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and developed countries. *Population Studies* 70:21-37.

## 2015

Maltiel, R., Raftery, A.E., McCormick, T.H. and Baraff, A. (2015). Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method. *Annals of Applied Statistics*, 9:1247-1277. Earlier version.

Wheldon, M.C., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2015). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society*, 178:977-1007. Earlier version.

Azose, J.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2015). Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates. *Demography* 52:1627-1650.

Alkema, L., Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E. and Wilmoth, J.R. (2015). The United Nations Probabilistic Population Projections: An Introduction to Demographic Forecasting with Uncertainty. *Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting* 37:19-24.

Bijak, J., Alberts, I., Alho, J., Bryant, J., Buettner, T., Falkingham, J., Forster, J.J., Gerland, P., King, T., Onorante, L., Keilman, N., O’Hagan, A., Owens, D., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., and Smith, P.W.F. (2015). Uncertain Population Forecasting: A Case for Practical Uses. *Journal of Official Statistics* 31:537-544.

Bao, L, Raftery, A.E. and Reddy, A. (2015). Estimating the Sizes of Populations at Risk of HIV Infection in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. *Statistics and Its Interface*, 8:125-136. Earlier version.
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## 2014

Raftery, A.E., Alkema, L. and Gerland, P. (2014). Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. *Statistical Science*, 29:58-68.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. *Demographic Research* 30:1011-1034.

Gerland, P., Raftery, A.E., Ševčíková , H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., Alkema, L., Fosdick, B.K., Chunn, J.L., Lalic, N., Bay, G., Buettner, T., Heilig, G.K. and Wilmoth, J. (2014). World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century._Science_ 346:234-237.

Raftery, A.E., Lalic, N. and Gerland, P. (2014). Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy. *Demographic Research*, 30:795-822.

Sharrow, D.J., Clark, S.J. and Raftery, A.E. (2014). Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics. *PLoS One* 9(5): e96447, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096447.

## 2013

Clark, S.J., Kahn, K., Houle, B., Arteche, A., Collinson, M.A., Tollman, S.M. and Stein, A. (2013). Young Children’s Probability of Dying Before and After Their Mothers’ Death: A Rural Southern African Population-Based Surveillance Study. *PLoS Medicine*, 10(3):e1001409.

Houle, B., Stein, A., Kahn, K., Madhavan, S., Collinson, M.A., Tollman, S.M. and Clark, S.J. (2013). Household Context and Child Mortality in Rural South Africa: The Effects of Birth Spacing, Shared Mortality, Household Composition, and Socio-Economic Status. *International Journal of Epidemiology*, doi:10.1093/ije/dyt149.

Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková , H. (2013). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. *Demography*, 50:777-801.

Sharrow, D., Clark, S.J., Collinson, M.A., Kahn, K. and Tollman, S.M. (2013). The Age-Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa. *Demographic Research*, 29:1039-1096.

Wheldon, M., Raftery, A.E., Clark, S.J. and Gerland, P. (2013). Estimating Demographic Parameters with Uncertainty from Fragmentary Data. *Journal of the American Statistical Association*, 108:96-110.

Wheldon, M. C., Raftery, A. E., Clark, S. J., and Gerland, P. (2013). Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality. Working Paper 138. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.

## 2012

Alkema, L., Raftery, A.E., Gerland, P., Clark, S.J. and Pelletier, F. (2012). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. *Demographic Research* 26:331-362.

Bao, L., Salomon, J.A., Brown, T., Raftery, A.E. and Hogan, D. (2012). Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics: revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2011. *Sexually Transmitted Infections* 88:i3-i10.

Clark, S.J., Thomas, J. and Bao, L.. (2012). Estimates of Age-Specific Reductions in HIV Prevalence in Uganda: Bayesian Melding Estimation and Probabilistic Population Forecast with an HIV-enabled Cohort Component Projection Model. *Demographic Research*, 27(26):743-74.

Fosdick, B.K. and Raftery, A.E. (2012). Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data with Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes. *The American Statistician*, 66:34-41.

Raftery, A.E., Li. N., Ševčíková , H., Gerland, P. and Heilig, G.K. (2012). Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries. *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences* 109:13915-13921.

Wheldon, M. C., Raftery, A. E., Clark, S. J., and Gerland, P. (2012). Bayesian Reconstruction of Past Populations and Vital Rates by Age for Developing and Developed Countries. Working Paper 117. Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington.

## 2011

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, F. Pelletier, T. Buettner, G.K. Heilig (2011). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. *Demography*, Vol. 48, 815-839.

H. Ševčíková, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery (2011). bayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate. *Journal of Statistical Software*, Vol. 43(1), 1-29.

## 2010

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S. J. Clark, F. Pelletier, and T. Buettner (2010). Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. CSSS Working Paper no. 97.

L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, and A. Reddy (2010). Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk of HIV in Bangladesh Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. CSSS Working Paper no. 103.

T. Brown, L. Bao, A.E. Raftery, J.A. Salomon, R.F. Baggaley, J. Stover and P. Gerland (2010). Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS estimation and projection package 2009. *Sexually Transmitted Infections*, Vol. 86 (Suppl 2), ii3-10, doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.044784.

J. L. Chunn, A. E. Raftery, P. Gerland (2010). Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries. CSSS Working Paper no. 105.

L.F. Johnson, L. Alkema, R.E. Dorrington (2010). A Bayesian approach to uncertainty analysis of sexually transmitted infection models. *Sexually Transmitted Infections*, Vol 86, 169-174.

D.J. Sharrow, S.J. Clark, M.A. Collinson, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2010). The Age-Pattern of Increases in Mortality Affected by HIV: Bayesian Fit of the Heligman-Pollard Model to Data from the Agincourt HDSS Field Site in Rural Northeast South Africa. CSSS Working Paper no. 102.

## 2009

M.A. Collinson, S.J. Clark, A.A.M. Gerritsen, P. Byass, K. Kahn, and S.M. Tollman (2009). The Dynamics of Poverty and Migration in a Rural South African Community, 2001-2005. CSSS Working Paper no. 92.

A.E. Raftery and L. Bao (2009). Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling. Technical report no. 560, Department of Statistics.

## 2008

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, T. Brown (2008). Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates. *Sexually Transmitted Infections*, Vol 84 (Suppl I), i11 - i16.

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, P. Gerland, S.J. Clark, and F. Pelletier (2008). Estimating the Total Fertility Rate from Multiple Imperfect Data Sources and Assessing its Uncertainty. CSSS Working Paper no. 89.

T. Brown, J.A. Salomon, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, and E.Gouws (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. *Sexually Transmitted Infections* , Vol 84 (Suppl I), i5 - i11.

S.J. Clark, J. Eaton, M.M. Elmquist, N.R. Ottenweiller and J.K. Snavely (2008). Demographic consequences of HIV epidemics and effects of different male circumcision intervention designs: Suggestive findings from microsimulation. CSSS Working Paper no. 85.

J. Thomas and S.J. Clark (2008). More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie Matrix Representation and New Estimation Methods. CSSS Working Paper 88.

S.M Tollman, K. Kahn, B. Sartorius, M.A. Collinson, S.J. Clark, M.L. Garenne (2008). Implications of mortality transition for primary health care in rural South Africa: a population-based surveillance study. *Lancet* Vol. 372, No. 9642, 893-901.

## 2007

L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery and S.J. Clark (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. *Annals of Applied Statistics* Volume 1, Number 1, 229-248.

H. Sevcikova, A.E. Raftery and P.A. Waddell (2007). Assessing uncertainty in urban simulations using Bayesian melding. *Transportation Research*, Vol. 41B, Issue 6, 652-669.